It’s no secret that San Francisco’s economic core continues to reel from the devastation that began nearly four years ago. First came the outbreak of COVID-19 that brought “non-essential” in-person business activity to a halt. Then, the widespread adoption of remote work and departure of both employers and employees alike. A global city mired in worldwide turmoil, its shimmering skyline turned dark. Looming recession, large-scale layoffs, and a spectacularly publicized fall from grace no doubt present obstacles to recovering — or reinventing — a prosperous downtown.

The flight of wealth is acutely evident among newly constructed residential buildings. What demand remained for these highrise homes after cash-rich tech millionaires and foreign investors exited the market, skyrocketed borrowing costs have since erased. Year to date, purchase activity has been all but nonexistent with less than two dozen units scooped up out of hundreds available in these developments, below. One of the largest, Serif, has in fact seen only one transaction in nearly 18 months. It’s among those still largely unsold.

Fitting for precisely this moment, perhaps, is the sage advice of investment genius Warren Buffett: be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. This is the time to be greedy.

One Steuart Lane

Recent adjustments have shaved 15 percent off the prices of at least four 1-, 2- and 3-bedroom residences advertised to the public. The most recent sale, 1 Steuart Lane #804, was purchased this past spring at a 23+ percent discount from the $2,995,000 it was listed at in 2022. That transaction is now leverage to buyers in negotiating price.

Serif

Certain units including 960 Market Street #504 have been reduced by 35 percent or more since sales began; many mid-floor homes are within striking distance of $1,000 per square foot. Of note, this development is outside the Transbay Community Facilities District (CFD) boundary, relieving owners of an extremely expensive Mello-Roos tax burden imposed on other downtown new developments.

181 Fremont

The developer has been sticky on advertised prices but that’s not keeping buyers from receiving concessions behind closed doors. Both residences sold in 2023, 181 Fremont Street #62D and 181 Fremont Street #63C, traded at discounts of 7 and 9 percent respectively. The first sub-million dollar offerings, studio and 1-bedroom Atelier Suites, were released to the public earlier this year.

MIRA

Having implemented a responsive strategy from the beginning, MIRA has managed to navigate the market shift relatively successfully and is approaching close-out. Remaining units ranging from 1 to 4 bedrooms are almost entirely located on the upper floors where premium views command premium prices. Recent buyers have, however, had success making below-ask offers.

The Avery

Pricing for larger residences, including 3-bedroom layouts, has remained approximately the same since sales launched. Smaller units have been reduced by 10 to 15 percent depending on views and elevation. Still, nearly all are above $1,500 per square foot — some more than twice that amount. This is an instance where buyers may do well to aggressively negotiate the terms of an offer.

Four Seasons Private Residences

Few homes at the Four Seasons have been advertised to the public, and for three years not one appeared on the MLS. Price adjustments and below-ask sales are difficult to track for those reasons. It will take decades for the developer to unload every unit at this absorption rate, which suggests leverage for offerors. Like Serif, this building is positively not within the Transbay CFD.