Dawn Of A New Day At Crescent Nob Hill

Nov 8, 2021

To be sure, the past 18 months has been not great for real estate developers (or anyone else, really) trying to sell condos in San Francisco. At the ultra-luxury newcomer Crescent, it’s been worse than not great — dismal. Since launching sales in Spring 2020, only one lonely unit has sold. At that absorption rate, it would take 66 years to sell all 44 units. Ouch.

When the housing market hits speedbumps and begins to shift away from sellers’ favor, it’s often the plain shoebox type of home — most new construction — that takes the biggest price hit. With so many like-kind listings in one building or one neighborhood, a lower price can be the sole reason why one unit sells and another doesn’t. It becomes a race to the bottom.

Attracting home buyers gets even more challenging when new condo projects launch, adding to that like-kind inventory. As a result, we’ve seen brand new developments reduce prices (Noir), offer major incentives (Murano), and increase commissions to cooperating brokers.

As exceptional as Crescent is, it has been no exception to any of the above. But no sooner did the one unit under contract close escrow than the two on-MLS listings were canceled and the sales team was canned.

875 California Street is marketed and exclusively listed by cooperating broker Polaris Pacific. Listing photos above courtesy of SFAR MLS.

Now, entering the final stretch of 2021, units have reappeared on the MLS under the new listing broker Polaris Pacific:

› Unit 306: 1-bed/1-bath/647sqft, priced at $1,295,000 (Listing Details)

› Unit 302: 2-bed/2-bath/1,430sqft, priced at $2,395,000 (Listing Details)

Industry insiders reason that there are two reasons why listings don’t sell: price and/or marketing. And on that note, with consideration to the glacial pace of sales of Crescent, current pricing reflects only a small adjustment from the initial release. Unit 306 above, for example, was offered at $1,325,000 in June 2020. Really, such a minute change to $1,295,000 is less about price and more about consumer psychology.

If unit prices are largely unchanged, then sales success will depend on compelling marketing efforts and exposure. The development’s existing digital footprint — established by the previous sales team — is among the most robust, consistent and polished of any currently selling in San Francisco. That brings us to the million-dollar question: What will the new listing broker do differently?

With the post-pandemic future nigh, the world slowly and surely finding some semblance of normalcy (a new normal), and local dynamics changed markedly, there’s really only one monumental thing to do: adapt, somehow.